Ontario Fall Economic Statement

Steady As She Goes

Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy wants you to compare Premier Doug Ford’s government to Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government. That comparison was a theme of the Finance Minister’s remarks on Thursday as he laid out Ontario’s Fall Economic Statement (FES) on Thursday. While the FES is traditionally nothing more than in-year adjustments to the spending committed to in the provincial budget, the Ford government has been using the document to do some table setting ahead of the 2026 budget. 

The Balancing Act

Ontario’s deficit is currently projected to be $13.5 billion, down about $1 billion from the projections in May. Bethlenfalvy was quick to point out, in a refrain that we will no doubt hear repeated as he does the media rounds in the coming days, that Ontario is only one of Canada’s four largest provinces with a credible path to balance by 2027-28. That’s because the Ford government has been under sustained fire from some conservative analysts for not being hawkish enough with the budget’s bottom line, so look to Ford his government to shine a spotlight on anything that shows fiscal restraint – and Ontario being ahead of Alberta on the path to balance gives Bethlenfalvy something to counter the criticisms with.

The Elephant in the Room

The trade dispute between Canada and the United States peppers the document. Ontario is investing money in Protect Ontario Workers Employment Resource Centres, more investment in Protect Ontario Accounts to help businesses lower their United States trade exposure, tripling investment in the Ontario Together Trade Fund. The talk all over Ottawa, now creeping into Queen’s Park, is about how Canada goes from being a “branch-plant” economy to something more entrepreneurial. That’s a shift that is tectonic for Canada and for Ontario – and it forces the opposition to pick narratives that accept the underlying premise, because no one is going to argue in favour of Canada remaining as trade exposed to the United States as it is.

Look for Marit Stiles and the official opposition NDP to agree on much of the premise of government spending, but hammer home Ontario’s jobs deficit. Despite a $2.5 billion-dollar Skills Development Fund, Ontario’s unemployed number nearly 800,000, with a small improvement released Friday by Statistics Canada showing Ontario added 55,000 jobs in October, bringing the province’s unemployment figure to 7.6 per cent.

The Teaser

Alongside accusations of big spending, the Ford government has come under fire from some small-c and capital-C Conservatives for not being the aggressive taxcutters they promised to be. That’s a narrative Bethlenfalvy strongly denies, but is also clearly aware of, and the speech’s language shows that. Bethlenfalvy, in his remarks and in the press conference that followed, itemized the ways the government has cut taxes since coming to power. But then he took it a step further, by announcing the beginning of consultations on Ontario’s Tax Action Plan. This, too, is tied to increasing Ontario’s domestic economic resilience. The government has been telegraphing action on taxes for months, including at Ford’s recent Empire Club speech. 

The Tax Action Plan is, so far, a public consultation on how to scale businesses and incentivize growth without compromising the balanced-budget timeline. This is going to be a key opportunity to talk to the government in the coming months.

What’s Next?

The federal Liberals tried to sell transformation, while the Ford government is trying to sell steadiness through uncertainty. Reinforcing that message is “Protect Ontario” branding across programs and communications. If the Ford government leans into its Tax Action Plan, it could have a major impact on April’s provincial budget. The pre-budget consultation period is starting now, alongside those Tax Action Plan consultations. 

The Texture Method

If your organization if looking to secure a funding or policy measure from Ontario, it’s time for both the public relations air-game and government-relations ground game to get your compelling narrative and concrete ask in front of ministers and staff. The key to success is communications that show how your proposal aligns with the government’s goals. 

The Texture team can handle both your public relations and government relations. We’re a battle-tested team of top political advisors and communicators from Queen’s Park, the House of Commons and governments across the country. Our work drives conversations, builds trust, and moves the needle in the media, in the boardroom, and with governments.